The 'new technology' casino – where and when to place your bets?
New tech waves reward smart timing. From predictive analytics to GenAI copilots, here’s where the chips are landing - and which bets to place for 2026.
My art teacher once told me I had enough to appreciate art, but I wasn’t going to be the next Picasso. She was right. Even with Flux or MidJourney, I still can’t make a viral AI infographic to save my life. You don't need to be a genius but you do need to stick to your core business and make smart bets.
New tech rolls out in waves
Early players jump in first—learning fast but paying tuition through failed pilots. Fast followers wait for tools to harden, then scale decisively. Late movers arrive when regulation, customers, or competitors leave no choice.
With AI, most organisations sit between early experiments and fast-follower scale-ups. The challenge is knowing which bets are paying out, and which tables are heating up.
Where the Chips Are Landing
The clearest wins so far have been in areas where data is abundant and processes are repeatable:
- Predictive analytics in forecasting, maintenance, and risk
- Copilots and agents in service desks that truly deflect calls
- Gen AI for content/admin and search, a real time-saver
Not glamorous, but profitable and auditable.
Looking to 2026
- Agentic AI (multi-step goals): exciting but brittle in enterprises. Worth watching for maturity around 2026.
- Vertical AI models (healthcare, legal, retail): advancing faster — less hallucination, easier regulatory fit, practical ROI. This pool is warming.
Better Prototyping = Smaller Bets, Faster Learning
Unlike ERP or cloud waves, AI pilots don’t cost millions. You can spin up prototypes in weeks. That means placing small chips on multiple tables instead of going all-in early.
The cost of learning has dropped. Some bets flop, others spread quietly until they become the new normal. The best compass? Run many experiments, fail fast, scale what sticks.
This lowers the psychological barrier—fast followers can experiment sooner without betting the farm.
If you’d like deeper dives — when agents toughen up, or why smaller LLMs might beat giants for managing our business — DM me and I’ll line those up.